COVID-19 risk index (CRI): a simple and validated emergency department risk score that predicts mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation.

Although certain risk factors have been associated with morbidity and mortality, validated emergency department (ED) derived risk prediction models specific to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. The objective of this study is to describe and externally validate the COVID-19 risk index (CRI). A large retrospective longitudinal cohort study was performed to analyze consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Multivariate regression using clinical data elements from the ED was used to create the CRI. The results were validated with an external cohort of 1799 patients from the MI-COVID19 database. The primary outcome was the composite of the need for mechanical ventilation or inpatient mortality, and the secondary outcome was inpatient mortality. A total of 1020 patients were included in the derivation cohort. A total of 236 (23%) patients in the derivation cohort required mechanical ventilation or died. Variables independently associated with the primary outcome were age ≥ 65 years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cerebrovascular disease, initial D-dimer > 1.1 µg/mL, platelet count < 150 K/µL, and severity of SpO2:FiO2 ratio. The derivation cohort had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, and 0.74 in the external validation cohort Calibration shows close adherence between the observed and expected primary outcomes within the validation cohort. The CRI is a novel disease-specific tool that assesses the risk for mechanical ventilation or death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Discrimination of the score may change given continuous updates in contemporary COVID-19 management and outcomes.

SARS-CoV-2 infection: Initial viral load (iVL) predicts severity of illness/outcome, and declining trend of iVL in hospitalized patients corresponds with slowing of the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization of patients infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have remained considerable worldwide. Patients often develop severe complications and have high mortality rates. The cycle threshold (Ct) value derived from nasopharyngeal swab samples using real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) may be a useful prognostic marker in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, however, its role in predicting the course of the pandemic has not been evaluated thus far. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study which included all patients who had a nasopharyngeal sample positive for SARS-CoV-2 between April 4 -June 5, 2020. The Ct value was used to estimate the number of viral particles in a patient sample. The trend in initial viral load on admission on a population level was evaluated. Moreover, patient characteristics and outcomes stratified by viral load categories were compared and initial viral load was assessed as an independent predictor of intubation and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 461 hospitalized patients met the inclusion criteria. This study consisted predominantly of acutely infected patients with a median of 4 days since symptom onset to PCR. As the severity of the pandemic eased, there was an increase in the percentage of samples in the low initial viral load category, coinciding with a decrease in deaths. Compared to an initial low viral load, a high initial viral load was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 5.5, CI 3.1-9.7, p < 0.001) and intubation (OR 1.82 CI 1.07-3.11, p = 0.03), while an initial intermediate viral load was associated with increased risk of inpatient mortality (OR 1.9, CI 1.14-3.21, p = 0.015) but not with increased risk for intubation. CONCLUSION: The Ct value obtained from nasopharyngeal samples of hospitalized patients on admission may serve as a prognostic marker at an individual level and may help predict the course of the pandemic when evaluated at a population level.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load and Myocardial Injury: Independent and Incremental Predictors of Adverse Outcome.

To evaluate the association of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) initial viral load (iVL) and the incidence of myocardial injury (MCI) in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, we conducted a retrospective longitudinal study of hospitalized patients who had a nasopharyngeal swab sample on admission that returned a positive result for SARS-CoV-2 by polymerase chain reaction between April 4 and June 5, 2020. The cycle threshold (Ct) value was used as a surrogate for the iVL level, with a Ct level of 36 or less for elevated iVL and greater than 36 for low iVL. Myocardial injury was defined as an elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I level that was higher than the 99th percentile upper reference limit. A total of 270 patients were included. Of these, 171 (63.3%) had an elevated iVL and 88 (32.6%) had MCI. There was no significant difference in the incidence of MCI in patients with low iVL compared to those with elevated iVL (28 of 99 [28.3%] vs 60 of 171 [35.1%]; P=.25). In a multivariable model, MCI (odds ratio, 3.86; 95% CI, 1.80 to 8.34; P<.001) and elevated iVL (odds ratio, 4.21; 95% CI, 2.06 to 8.61; P<.001) were independent and incremental predictors of in-hospital mortality. The SARS-CoV-2 iVL level is not associated with increased incidence of MCI, although both parameters are strong independent and incremental predictors of mortality. Understanding the MCI mechanisms allows for early focused interventions to improve survival, especially in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and high iVL.

Right Heart Strain on Presenting 12-Lead Electrocardiogram Predicts Critical Illness in COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the association of new right heart strain patterns on presenting 12-lead electrocardiogram (RHS-ECG) with outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular comorbidities and complications, including right ventricular dysfunction, are common and are associated with worse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. The data on the clinical usefulness of the 12-lead ECG to aid with prognosis are limited. METHODS: This study retrospectively evaluated records from 480 patients who were consecutively admitted with COVID-19. ECGs obtained at presentation in the emergency department (ED) were considered index ECGs. RHS-ECG was defined by any new right-axis deviation, S1Q3T3 pattern, or ST depressions with T-wave inversions in leads V1 to V3 or leads II, III, and aVF. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess whether RHS-ECGs were independently associated with primary outcomes. RESULTS: ECGs from the ED were available for 314 patients who were included in the analysis. Most patients were in sinus rhythm, with sinus tachycardia being the most frequent dysrhythmia. RHS-ECG findings were present in 40 (11%) patients. RHS-ECGs were significantly associated with the incidence of adverse outcomes and an independent predictor of mortality (adjusted odds ratio [adjOR]: 15.2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.1 to 45.2; p < 0.001), the need for mechanical ventilation (adjOR: 8.8; 95% CI: 3.4 to 23.2; p < 0.001), and their composite (adjOR: 12.1; 95% CI: 4.3 to 33.9]; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: RHS-ECG was associated with mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19. Special attention should be taken in patients admitted with new signs of RHS on presenting ECG.

Cardiac Injury Patterns and Inpatient Outcomes Among Patients Admitted With COVID-19.

Although certain risk factors have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients admitted with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), the impact of cardiac injury and high-sensitivity troponin-I (hs-cTnI) concentrations are not well described. In this large retrospective longitudinal cohort study, we analyzed the cases of 1,044 consecutively admitted patients with COVID-19 from March 9 until April 15. Cardiac injury was defined by hs-cTnI concentration >99th percentile. Patient characteristics, laboratory data, and outcomes were described in patients with cardiac injury and different hs-cTnI cut-offs. The primary outcome was mortality, and the secondary outcomes were length of stay, need for intensive care unit care or mechanical ventilation, and their different composites. The final analyzed cohort included 1,020 patients. The median age was 63 years, 511 (50% patients were female, and 403 (40% were white. 390 (38%) patients had cardiac injury on presentation. These patients were older (median age 70 years), had a higher cardiovascular disease burden, in addition to higher serum concentrations of inflammatory markers. They also exhibited an increased risk for our primary and secondary outcomes, with the risk increasing with higher hs-cTnI concentrations. Peak hs-cTnI concentrations continued to be significantly associated with mortality after a multivariate regression controlling for comorbid conditions, inflammatory markers, acute kidney injury, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Within the same multivariate regression model, presenting hs-cTnI concentrations were not significantly associated with outcomes, and undetectable hs-cTnI concentrations on presentation did not completely rule out the risk for mechanical ventilation or death. In conclusion, cardiac injury was common in patients admitted with COVID-19. The extent of cardiac injury and peak hs-cTnI concentrations were associated with worse outcomes.